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Visitors enter a job fair at the Phoenix workforce connection in Phoenix, Arizona |
By Jason Lange
WASHINGTON |
Fri May 4, 2012 12:22am EDT
(Reuters) - Employers likely increased hiring in April, although not
enough to lower the country's 8.2 percent jobless rate, keeping pressure
on President Barack Obama ahead of his November re-election bid.
Employers likely added 170,000
workers to their payrolls last month, according to a Reuters survey of
economists, up from March's meager print of 120,000.
That
would allay fears the economy is losing momentum. But it also could
dampen hopes that a stretch of strong winter hiring signaled a turning
point for the economic recovery.
"We're still growing just gradually," said Nigel Gault, an economist at IHS Global Insight in Lexington, Massachusetts.
"Hiring is coming back into line with what you would expect with sluggish growth."
The Labor Department will release the April employment report on Friday at 8:30 a.m. EDT (1230 GMT).
The
report, which regularly sets the tone for financial markets around the
world, could rattle nerves at the White House. Weak growth and high
unemployment create a formidable headwind for Obama, who entered office
during the darkest days of the 2007-09 recession.
His Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, repeatedly has accused Obama of doing too little to foster job growth.
The
unemployment rate, which soared to as high as 10 percent during Obama's
first year in the office, is seen holding steady at 8.2 percent. After
holding near 9 percent for most of last year, it fell sharply over the
winter.
Still, it remains about 2
percentage points higher than its average over the last 50 years, and
the Federal Reserve thinks it probably will not post a full recovery for
at least several more years.
Nevertheless,
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said last month the central bank is providing
enough support for the economy, and an as-expected jobs report is
unlikely to alter that stance.
WEATHER REPORTS
So far this year, the labor market has given mixed signals.
During
the winter, fast growth in payrolls led many analysts to think the
economy was turning a corner. Then jobs growth braked in March, fueling
fears the recovery was losing momentum.
Most
economists think mild weather muddied the waters, boosting hiring in
the winter but making March look weaker because companies had pulled
hiring forward.
The consensus
forecast for payroll gains in April is just below the average of the
last six months. That's because economists think the weather effect is
still dissipating.
"It's not that
there's something wrong with the economy. Employment just got ahead of
itself," said Robert Mellman, an economist at JPMorgan in New York.
The
report is expected to show the private sector accounted for all the job
gains in April, adding 175,000 new positions, with manufacturing
registering another strong month.
However,
a report from payroll processing firm ADP on Wednesday showed U.S.
companies added only 119,000 jobs last month, suggesting economists'
forecasts could be on the high side.
Public
payrolls are expected to contract for the seventh time in eight months
as state and local governments struggle with funding shortfalls, though
the pace of public-sector job losses is slowing.
Wall
Street analysts see economic growth holding at a lackluster 2.2 percent
annual rate in the second quarter, matching its pace in the first three
months of the year.
Average hourly earnings are seen rising 0.2 percent, while the length of the average work week is seen steady at 34.5 hours.
Even if hiring does slow a bit in the spring, a stable work week reinforces the view that economic growth remains on track.
"This shouldn't set off alarm bells," said Michael Gapen, an economist at Barclays in New York.